Media Inflation Watch

The latest Media Inflation Watch data for the period Jan-Jun 2011 has been released by Mike Leahy. (% increases are on 2010 Jan to Jun)...

To recap how to read the figures:

Rates = the % rate increase / decrease year on year

Performance = the % audience increase / decrease year on year

MIW index = the interplay between the two above - so for example - if rates increase and audience decreases, then MIW will show a very big increase. If rates increase, but audience increases as well, then the MIW increase won't be as big. If rates decrease but audience increases then the MIW will be negative. The lower the MIW number the better. If it is negative, then it is very good!

…Executive summary

Overall (across all media) media inflation is up by 4.35%.

TV’s media inflation is actually down…whilst they’ve had rate increases of 11%, audience has increased by 15% given a negative media inflation figure.

Print and cinema are the worst performers (print up 13% and cinema up 17%) this is mainly due to dramatic audience loss.

Radio is holding steady with inflation sitting at just over 4%.

... TV

Rates +11.11%,

Performance +15.88%

MIW Index (CPM) -2.80%

Once again there are big differences between Free-to-Air and Paid. Free-to-Air yields Rates at a low +4.43% with Audience +10.51% and an MIW Index (CPM) of -4.74%. This is largely due to the great showings of SABC 2 which had a 6.60% rate increase but a great 28.40% performance increase yielding -17.00% MIW Index (CPM). SABC 3 and eTV did pretty well in once again registering negative MIW Index.

Pay TV (ie., DStv) registered much higher Rates at +26.92%, but continues to grow Audience, this time by +28.62% over 2010 Q1&2, leading to a very modest MIW Index (CPM) year on year of +1.79%.

IMPORTANT NOTE... DStv performance 2011 shows DStv-i audience data, and the percentage changes are on DStv-i data in the relevant periods in 2010. But the tables show TAMS data in 2010 and before. So do not be alarmed by seemingly wrong percentage changes!

... Print

Rates +6.70%

Performance -4.94%

MIW Index (CPM) +13.40%

Ranges from a low of +3.60% MIW (CPM) for Community Newspapers to a high of +17.46% for Dailies. Falling circulations is the problem for many (but not all) print titles: Communities managed to hold circulation steady but Dailies as a weighted category slid by -7.67% over the same period of 2010.

... Radio

Rates +7.35%

Performance +3.99%

MIW Index (CPM) +4.50%

Good second quarter listenership continues the positive trend seen in the previous quarter. Very modest rate increases from the big SABC stations allied to audience growth, especially from Jacaranda and Cape Talk helped. Nevertheless a few stations buck this positive situation, most notably SAfm and Capricorn.

... Out of Home

Rates +5.10%

MIW Index (CPM) +5.10%

Outdoor contractors raised their asking rates in January. But at 5.10% it is still a lower percentage than all but 2 years since 1990!

... Cinema

Rates +2.50%

Performance -12.50%

MIW Index (CPM) +17.20%

2011 Jan-Jun does not appear to be kind to Cinema but is a period of 2 halves. The medium fared much better in 2011 Q2, clawing back audiences lost in the 2010 Q4/2011 Q1 slump - up by 18.9% in Q2 over Q1. The reason: much better product from Hollywood/Bollywood.

... Total All Media

Rates +8.68%

Performance +6.02%

MIW Index (CPM) +4.35%

So for clients looking at planning now for 2012, are estimation is that you should be looking at inflation of between 5% and 8% for budgeting purposes.

How to get included in the AMPS Questionnaire?

We are regularly asked by clients how they (or their category) can be included in the AMPS questionnaire.

Firstly, brands need to spend a minimum of R13 million per annum, according to AdDynamix to qualify for AMPS.

Having said this however, brands/product categories are not automatically included; an official request has to be submitted to SAARF and then it is put to an Advisory Committee and they decide whether or not to include the brand/product.

There will be a number of changes made to AMPS 2012 which we as The MediaShop have been instrumental in putting forward the changes.